A SAD AUTUMN DAY
September 26, 2001
by Jeff Gibbs ~ 9188 E. Hoxie Rd.
~ Cedar, MI 49621
231-941-0825 ~ jeffgibbstc@aol.com
RESPONSES FOLLOW
This week I had the privilege of driving from Traverse City across the straights of Mackinaw, and on to Marquette on Lake Superior. I thought I was in for a treat as autumn colors ought to be at their peak according to news reports which claimed trees in Michigan's Upper Peninsula had begun to change colors a few weeks ago. Instead, I was in for a rude awakening.
Very little autumn color was apparent as I traveled north and west, even in the Huron Mountains where frost always arrives in late August. (Today is September 26th.) Apparently it was stressed trees that had already turned, and these had dropped their leaves. I noticed that many many aspen had been defoliated and were looking ragged. Strangely, most trees had not begun to turn at all.
After I a couple rainy days I made the return trip along the north coast of Lake Michigan, a one hundred and fifty mile journey. I was sickened. The aspen and cottonwood were "turning" ahead of the maples. They were a sickly brown, or dark gray, or a deathly dull green. Many aspen had little foliage and some were bare. Cedar swamps along the way were browning, or the foliage was lacey and thin, or missing. Some tracts were completely dead and gray: lifeless.
I counted in three hours only two small stretches of maples with ANY fall color: merely a few branches on a few trees. No other trees showed any fall color. I wold estimate that perhaps a third to half of the hardwoods were turning these strange dull "death-tones." The rest remained dull green.
The combined effect of dead and diseased trees, and the dark colors, was disturbing. If anyone has an explanation for the brown leaves of autumn I would love to hear it. On my part, I wonder if in addition to the regular load of acid precipitation accumulated all year, the recent rain had wafted from some southerly industrial region a potent brew of acid, or perhaps "worse."
Please note that I have experienced autumn in Michigan with joy and awe for 46 years. I have never seen such a sight even as a lad in the industrial regions of Flint and Detroit.
I have enjoyed that stretch of north-woods along Lake Michigan nearly every fall for thirty years. Something is very, very, wrong.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: Bernard Welmers <bwelmers@yahoo.com>
To: FOREST@listserv.funet.fi <FOREST@listserv.funet.fi>
Date: Sunday, September 30, 2001 6:52 PM
Subject: Re: A Sad Autumn - Dying Forests in Northern Michigan?
Hello everyone,
I am currently a fourth year forestry student at Lakehead University. This summer I work in the Sault Ste. Marie area which is sort of in the area that this email discussed. I also drove through the whole area from Toronto to Thunder Bay during the beginning of September looking for and at the effects of the drought. This may not make me an expert but it should give some credence to my observations about what I saw in relation to the forward email.
I would have to say that the effect described in the email was not all due to air pollution. The area in discussion went through a major drought this summer (I heard of news reports for southern Ontario saying they got around quarter of their normal rain fall for the summer. I am willing to say that Northern Michigan got more then that but it still was a lot less then the normal amount of rainfall). I will not argue as to whether or not the drought was caused by global warming or not as I do not know or looked for the reason behind the change in the rainfall pattern. In the area I noticed that areas with swampy land were dried out (as seen by the large mud flats around the water).
Another reason that only the Poplar (Aspen) trees seemed effected is that there also was a severe infestation of army worms (Pseudaletia unipuncta) this year, which has been building for a couple of years now. This caused a lot of the Poplar trees to be defoliated, they did regrow their leaves later in the summer but the foliage was thinner and the trees continued to look sick the rest of the summer.
I would have to respectfully suggest that these two causes worked more in causing the trees to change their colour earlier in the season. The drought would also account for the colour change in the Cedars as well. I would also like to mention that similar effects are showing here in Thunder Bay, on the north end of Lake Superior, which has also gone through the drought and army worms.
Sincerely,
Bernard Welmers
****************************************************
Bernard Welmers
va3bnd@rac.ca
ICQ # 2491479
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
----Original Message-----
From: JeffGibbsTC@aol.com <JeffGibbsTC@aol.com>
Date: Monday, October 01, 2001 8:57 AM
Subject: Re: Fw: Re: A Sad Autumn - Dying Forests in Northern
Michigan?
Bernard,
Thanks for your concern for our forests.
I truly doubt that drought could be causing the dramatic lack of color in the nearly two- hundred mile corridor from Escanaba to St. Ignace. I have lived in Michigan all my life and I have never seen an autumn without color, even after prolonged droughts in the 1970's and 80's. These dry spells lasted several years and through all seasons; this summer only June and July were dry; enough to affect corn and grass but likely not trees. And Michigan's central Upper Peninsula in places received soaking rains all summer. In northern lower Michigan the color is not good but better, and here it was far dryer.
Regarding the cedar, it is northern white cedar, which grows without complaint on limestone and granite cliffs with little or no soil and even less moisture. So I don't think a few dry weeks would kill them, or cause them to turn brown. Cedar is looking haggard (or dead) in many section of the state, join thousands of acres of tipsy gray spruce skeletons observed in the lower peninsula from West Branch to Mackinaw City along I-75, or from St. Ignace to Newberry along M-115 and M-28 in the upper peninsula. And everywhere, really. And the aspen are dying all over the state. First gypsy moth, then forest tent caterpillars. This is "natural?" Again, in my nearly fifty years in Michigan, I have never seen such a dieback--except in trees which never came back, such as elm. What is making the aspen so vulnerable?
I would encourage you or one of your colleagues to set up a research station and discover what pollutants wafting north from Milwaukee and Chicago, or from the smelters in Ontario, or elsewhere, might be impacting our forests. What scientists or research institutions are conducting studies of the impact of air pollution on forests and forest soils in Michigan, or Wisconsin or Minnesota for that matter? What papers have been written considering the impact of acid precipitation readings of 4.2 or 4.6 on our northern forests? Where are the studies about ozone issues, or mercury readings which exceed federal standards, or the myriad of other environmental effects on our forests? From the foresters I hear drought, frost, bugs, but see no data, only speculation. The only heartening thing about that (if I may be so bold) is that it seems to put us lay people on an equal footing with the scientists: until someone gets the data, we are all guessing. And the trees are still dying.
Jeff Gibbs
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: JeffGibbsTC@aol.com <JeffGibbsTC@aol.com>
To: ghawkes@sover.net <ghawkes@sover.net>
Date: Monday, October 01, 2001 10:25 AM
Subject: Re: Fw: A Sad Autumn - Dying Forests in Northern
Michigan? acid rain chart
As you can see the acid rain levels in northern Michigan are
comparable to levels in industrial areas where the impact of acid
rain is well documented. NWC - pH of Precipitation
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Lovett <LovettG@ecostudies.org>
To: Gerry Hawkes <ghawkes@sover.net>
Cc: JeffGibbsTC@aol.com <JeffGibbsTC@aol.com>
Date: Monday, October 01, 2001 9:49 AM
Subject: RE: A Sad Autumn - Dying Forests in Northern Michigan?
Gerry Hawkes and Jeff Gibbs:
I don’t know you, but I received your email message about forests dying from air pollution in Northern Michigan. I am a plant ecologist who studies air pollution at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies in New York State. I contacted a colleague, Dave Karnosky, who is a professor and an air pollution specialist at Michigan Tech. I have pasted his response below, in which he notes that pest outbreaks, not air pollution, are the cause of the forest problems in N. Michigan.
I would urge you not to spread acid rain horror stories based on innuendo and incomplete understanding of the problems involved. Take the time to check with experts and find out what is going on. False or exaggerated stories only serve to lessen the credibility of serious scientific research on real air pollution problems.
Gary M. Lovett, Ph.D.
Institute of Ecosystem Studies
Box AB
Millbrook, NY 12545Telephone: 845-677-5343
Fax:845-677-5976Email: LovettG@ecostudies.org
********************************************************
Response from Dave Karnosky:
Gary:
The forests of northern Wisconsin and the U.P. have gone through two years of severe defoliation by the Forest Tent Caterpillar. Many aspen did not produce additional leaves this summer after the insect attack so they still have very ragged and thin canopies. Even maples were attacked late in the FTC cycle this summer, as by that time the preferred hosts (aspen & oak) were mostly defoliated, so many of them are also looking rough this year. There is a second major insect pest over much of the same region on aspen (Aspen blotch leaf miner) which has caused unprecedented amounts of damage this summer. At our FACE site, the aspen leaves are almost all brown from the abandoned miner (3-5% or more per leaf).
In regard to the suggestions about frost and air pollution, we have had our first frosts later than normal this year and I firmly believe our growing seasons are lengthening with global warming. As to the pollution problem, I believe this is simply not the case. Our north woods in this region have very low N loading and almost no S or O3.
Best regards.
Dave~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
From: Gerry Hawkes <ghawkes@sover.net>
To: Gary Lovett <LovettG@ecostudies.org>
Date: Monday, October 01, 2001 5:34 PM
Subject: Re: A Sad Autumn - Dying Forests in Northern Michigan?
Dear Gary,
Thanks for your response. I sent you the earlier emails because I knew you were with the Institute of Ecosystems Studies and I was looking for your response. Over the years I have been impressed by the research your Institute has conducted, particularly at Hubbard Brook.
Unfortunately even the best scientific research often lags many years behind what is actually happening in forest ecosystems due to the extreme complexity of understanding ecosystem functions and their interaction with complex mixes of airborne chemicals, as well as insects, disease, soils and weather. As you well know, funding for research is woefully short, therefore there is little hope of scientifically investigating, let alone understanding, even a small fraction of what is occurring in our forest ecosystems. In fact it appears that the pace of anthropogenic induced change and damage is even outrunning the ability of the scientific community just to document what is being lost.
In light of the severe shortfall of scientific understanding, we must take the knowledge and correlations we do have and act to protect the health of our ecosystems, much as we have done in the case of smoking and human health. Here the stakes are much greater.
The body of evidence pointing to air pollution as severely stressing and predisposing our forest ecosystems to a host of health and mortality problems is becoming overwhelming. Just a few of these problems and their likely association with air pollution have been compiled at http://www.biketrack.com/pollution.htm and http://www.biketrack.com/air_pollution_notes_from_other_places.htm
I urge you to speak out and act on curbing air pollution based on the knowledge we now have while actively pursuing more scientific research. We can always resume polluting if we discover conclusively that it is harmless, but we may never be able to rebuild destroyed ecosystems if we wait to conclusively discover that it is harmful.
Sincerely,
Gerry Hawkes
Eco Systems, Inc. & Bike Track, Inc.
Woodstock, Vermont
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Lovett <LovettG@ecostudies.org>
To: Gerry Hawkes <ghawkes@sover.net>
Date: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 10:09 AM
Gerry:
I strongly disagree with your approach here.It is valuable to document apparent instances of forest decline and ask about the cause. However, it is dangerous to speculate on the cause without some scientific basis. As I said in my previous message, this can seriously undermine the credibility of real scientific research in the area.
\While I agree that more funding is needed for research (not surprising given that I do research), this is not the problem for investigating many of the purported instances of air pollution damage. Any trained forest pathologist, and many foresters, can distinguish air pollution damage from insect and other sorts of damage in an instant. Public understanding of the risks of air pollution would be much improved if “reporters” like you would exercise some caution and check your facts before you spread your message on the Internet.
Gary M.
Lovett, Ph.D.
Institute
of Ecosystem Studies
Box AB
Millbrook, NY 12545
Telephone: 845-677-5343
Fax:845-677-5976
Email: LovettG@ecostudies.org
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: Gerry Hawkes <ghawkes@sover.net>
To: Gary Lovett <LovettG@ecostudies.org>
Cc: JeffGibbsTC@aol.com <JeffGibbsTC@aol.com>; Gene Likens <LikensG@ecostudies.org>; Dave Karnosky <karnosky@mtu.edu>; Kathleen Fallon Lambert <klambert@hbresearchfoundation.org>; Kathleen Weathers <WeathersK@ecostudies.org>; Charles Canham <CCanham@ecostudies.org>
Date: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:28 AM
Subject: Re: A Sad Autumn - Dying Forests in Northern Michigan?
Gary:
We have an abundance of scientific and observational information that air pollution is severely weakening and predisposing forests to damage and mortality from insects, disease and weather extremes and in many cases causing forest declines where no pathogens can be found. I challenge you to read through the information at http://www.biketrack.com/pollution.htm and http://www.biketrack.com/air_pollution_notes_from_other_places.htm then tell me that air pollution is not having serious effects on our forest ecosystems. Of course insects and disease are part of the equation, but anyone who claims to be an open minded scientist must ask themselves why insects and disease are taking a rapidly escalating toll on forest ecosystems over broad geographic areas (movement of alien species only explains a small part of the problem).
It is highly irresponsible not to use the ample evidence we now have to sound the alarm on air pollution.
Gerry Hawkes
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: Gerry Hawkes [mailto:ghawkes@sover.net]
Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001 7:38 AM
To: Gary Lovett
Cc: Jeff Gibbs; Gene Likens; Dave Karnosky;
klambert@hbresearchfoundation.org; Kathleen Weathers; Charles
Canham
Subject: Our exchange of emails
Gary,
I have placed our email exchanges on a page of responses to the Sad Autumn Day article.
I think your responses and Dave Karnosky's response are an important part of trying to present the issue of air pollution and forest health in a balanced manner. While my 32 years of observing the broad effects of air pollution on the health of forests have certainly convinced me that we have very serious and widespread air pollution and forest health problems, not all problems with forest health are a direct result of air pollution. Our email exchanges help point this out and illustrate the tension between your more cautious research approach which says we need more time and study and my more observational approach which says we are running out of time and must act now on the research and observations we already have.
I must say I was as shocked by your responses as you probably were with mine, yet I do believe we both want to achieve the same goal which is healthy forest ecosystems and healthy, happy futures for generations to come.
. . . .
Gerry Hawkes
Woodstock, Vermont
FOREST ECOSYSTEM COLLAPSE
----Original Message-----
From: Doug Cornett <drcornet@up.net>
To: Gerry Hawkes <ghawkes@sover.net>
Date: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 10:09 AM
Over the past decade,
I've seen the collapse of Upper Peninsula forest ecosystems
(and beyond) unfold before me. These are not isolated
incidences concerning one or two species over a couple year
time span. Numerous species are affected and the problems
appear to me as a continuous event over my 10+ years of
observation. Red, Silver, and Sugar Maple, Jack, Red and
White Pine, Eastern Hemlock, White Spruce, Balsam Fir and Aspens
are all dying. Research from my colleagues at Northern
Michigan University on salamander species show decline
because of acidified environments. Dozens of herbaceous
plant species are sick and declining in vigor. Something is
definitely wrong. I don't know Mr. Karnosky or Mr.
Lovett. But I do know that the scientific process is
failing us when I see such absurd responses to Jeff's
concerns. Insects and diseases alone are not solely
responsible for the collapse of forests in our area. There
has to be underlying factors precipitating this event. Acid
rain should be a prime suspect since pH maps show consistent
readings of 4.5 to 5.0 over the past 20 years or so.
Sounding the alarm that forests are sick is the responsible thing
to do. I'm glad that Jeff Gibbs has stepped up to the plate
and is publishing his writings. By the time the scientific
process comes along to tell us what we intuitively know, we'll be
baking in a treeless desert!
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: JeffGibbsTC@aol.com <JeffGibbsTC@aol.com>
To: ghawkes@sover.net <ghawkes@sover.net>
Date: Thursday, October 04, 2001 8:05 AM
Subject: Sad Autumn Day final
My final comment:
October 4, 2001
My only concern is to understand, and if possible prevent, the
sickening and dying of trees around the state of Michigan. I have
no desire to leap to conclusions that may be erroneous, but I
also have a desire and obligation to express my alarm at what I
am seeing. I have lived in four parts of this state, and my
work has required me to (unfortunately) drive hundreds and even
thousands of miles a week around Michigan. There is no
doubt in my mind that way too many trees are dying, from Detroit
where the ash are suddenly succumbing this summer by the
thousands, to the U.P. where my white birch died, to the oak
decline in across northern lower Michigan. When I see
thousands of acres of wetlands near West Branch with dead spruce
(not dying, but dead), and see the same thing near Cadillac, then
near Trout Lake two hundred miles north, I am concerned. I
know what this state looked like ten and twenty and forty years
ago. It does not look the same. When I drive around
Traverse City and see the tops of maples ragged and thin, and see
the same effect in Marquette, I am worried. When I travel
east and south in the U.S. and see the same dying-at-the-top
effect, I get very worried.
I support a call for more research into the causes of mortality and forest decline. However we need to act swiftly before additional species of trees decline or disappear. It's one hundred years after the blight began and the chestnuts are not returning. It's fifty years since Dutch elm swept through and the elm are not returning. If oaks decline and die across even part of the state, it will be a catastrophic loss to humans and to wildlife. And in Michigan our other key mast tree, beech, is likely to be threatened by beech bark disease in coming decades. Oaks are dying in sixty counties in Texas, and along several hundred miles of California coast. What is going on? Is all this just coindence?
I can think of nothing healthier than for the public and the scientific community to engage in a lively dialogue about the health of our forests and trees. We all share the same vision: lively, thriving forests we can pass on to our children and grandchildren.
Jeff Gibbs
Cedar, Michigan
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-----Original Message-----
From: Joe Aliff <joelovestrees@earthlink.net>
To: Gerry Hawkes <ghawkes@sover.net>
Date: Sunday, October 07, 2001 11:34 AM
SAME FOREST DEATH SEEN IN WEST VIRGINIA AS IN MICHIGAN
I am here to bear witness to the truth of the article "A Sad Autumn Day" by Jeff Gibbs--an article that deals with his journey through parts of the Michigan forest. On a daily basis, I see these same conditions that Jeff describes, but with one exception; Jeff sees them in Michigan and I see them in West Virginia--a place with plenty of rain. (a separate report on WV will be submitted to this page)
The truth of Jeff's report is supported by some and denied by others, but neither of these really matter, for the facts will remain the same and they are as follows;
From north to south and from east to west, from the highest peaks to the lowest valleys and plains, the trees of all species are severely stressed and many are already dead and dying. In fact, all life forms are affected and the proven overwhelming major cause is air pollution.
I do understand that some of you are not up to speed on these matters. I excuse the college students because they are taught from antique knowledge and to graduate, they must learn the given doctrine and pass the test that is laid before them. All the rest of us are without excuse and for a variety of reasons, but a small spot on a web page is hardly the place to attempt to fully teach the error of the erroneous words and ways. However, there is help to be had and with today's resources, a good education on these matters is not hard to come by--is limited only by you--requires only an open mind and a desire to learn the truth by the giving of enough study time.
To make it easier for you, I am going to ask that an encyclopedia definition of "air pollution" and "ground level ozone" be added to this web site with photo examples of the effects thereof--examples that you can compare to any vegetation that is near you, that you be able see these things for yourself and maybe, you will contribute to this web site. To you who are serious, I ask that you take the necessary time to go through this entire web site (both text and photos) and do so with an open mind. To say that science does not support the catastrophic effects of air pollution to all life forms is equal to saying that the earth is flat. This web site contains positive evidence from all over the world and yet, this site has only scratched the surface of available evidence. But, If you are reading this letter, then you are at the right place to begin your studies and I ask that you please do so.
To look and to read--yes, but to see and learn?
Ah!....there's the rub!......but, you can if you want to--a thing
that only you will decide.
Joe Aliff
759 Rock Creek RD.
Rock Creek WV 25174
(304) 854-2484
mailto:joelovestrees@earthlink.net
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